Sunday, April 13, 2014

Blood Moon Bullshit

There's a total lunar eclipse early Tuesday morning that will be visible across the United States.  Unfortunately, for those of us in the EDT time zone, totality won't occur until about 3:00 am (and I have an 8:40 am class that morning).  Also, and this is depressingly predictable for the Hudson Valley during interesting astronomical events, the weather forecast currently says "Showers likely" for Monday night and a 90% chance of showers for Tuesday.  Probably won't even set my alarm.

The NASA Eclipse web site has useful information if, against all odds, it happens to be clear where you are located in the Hudson Valley.


This is where the Moon will be around 3:30 am Tuesday morning in the Mid-Hudson Valley.  The red "star" to the right of the Moon will be the planet Mars.


One of the neat things about an eclipsed Moon is that it turns a beautiful reddish color.


Why is that?  Well let's first look at what causes lunar eclipses.  As shown in the diagram below (not in any way to scale), we see that an eclipse occurs when the Moon moves into the Earth's shadow - the umbra (there are penumbral eclipses, but they're too dim for most people to notice).  When the Moon is in this position, on the opposite side of the Earth from the Sun, it's at its full moon phase (the side of the Moon facing us is normally fully lit by the Sun).


So, why don't we have total lunar eclipses every month when the Moon is in that position?  To answer that, let's first look at the true scale of the Earth and the Moon (size and distance).


Now consider that the Moon does not orbit the Earth is the same plane as the ecliptic (the plane in which the Earth orbits the Sun).  The Moon's orbit is tilted by just over 5° from the ecliptic.  About half the time the Moon is below the ecliptic (and can't pass into the Earth's umbral shadow) and about half the time the Moon is above the ecliptic (and also can't pass into the Earth's umbral shadow).  Only when the Moon is passing through the ecliptic (points called the ascending or descending nodes) at the same time it happens to be a full moon, can we have a total lunar eclipse (you can also have partial and penumbral eclipses if things are quite exactly lined up).


For the 100 years from 2000 through 2099, there will be 85 total lunar eclipses (and 87 penumbral and 58 partial).

OK, back to the red Moon during an eclipse.  If the Earth had no atmosphere, the eclipsed Moon would be dark.  But because the Earth has an atmosphere and the gases in our atmosphere (78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen) scatter the shorter wavelength light at the blue end of the color spectrum, the longer wavelength reddish light makes it through.  This is why the sky looks blue on a sunny day (the blue light being scattered about) and why sunsets and sunrises look red (the longer wavelengths making it through the thick atmosphere on the horizon to our eyes).  As the reddish light passes through our atmosphere, it's also refracted (bent) and this allows it to faintly illuminate the Moon during a total eclipse.


This is called science, boys and girls.  Basic knowledge of eclipses goes back thousands of years to the ancient Babylonians and since then we've learned quite a bit about how it all works.  Using celestial mechanics, we can predict, with virtual 100% certainty, that there will be a total lunar eclipse on September 14, 2099 at 16:57:52 UTC visible in North America (mark your calendars).

OK, now here's where I'm going to piss some people off (and where the title of the post comes from).  Crazy Texas televangelist John Hagee from Cornerstone Church in San Antonio is preaching that this month's eclipse is the first of a series of four "blood moon" eclipses heralding the end of the world (the ever-popular apocalypse).

So, what is a blood moon?  According to CBN News (Pat Robertson's organization):

"A blood moon is when the Earth comes between the sun and the moon," Hagee explained. "And the sun is shining through the atmosphere of the Earth and casts up on the moon a red shadow. And so the moon appears to be red."

Um, OK, but that's what happens with virtually all total lunar eclipses.  Now all of a sudden the dumb ass lazy journalists writing for all these media outlets are calling the eclipse a "blood moon" (just Google the phrase to see)!  What the fuck?  There's nothing special at all about this particular eclipse.

But wait, Steve, you might say, Hagee is arguing that this is a special sequence of four eclipses.  Again, according to CBN News:

"Blood moons are set to appear in April 2014, on Passover, and then again in September 2014 during the Feast of Tabernacles, or Sukkot.

The timing is the same for 2015 -- a total of four blood moons, all appearing on Jewish feast days.

"The sun and the moon and the Earth are controlled by God almighty," Hagee said. "He is the one that is getting them in a direct alignment on a certain day at a certain time -- but each time, it's a Passover or Sukkot."

Well, if God's controlling the Sun and Moon, he's doing it in such a way that it's completely indistinguishable from perfectly natural physical processes (e.g. gravity).  Go to the NASA Eclipse page to view a 5,000 year calendar of lunar eclipses to see how perfectly predictable it all is.

Yes, there are total lunar eclipses on Passover and Sukkot in 2014 and 2015 (October 8, 2014, not September as the news article incorrectly states, but oh well).  Is there something special about this?  Well, think about the following.  Total lunar eclipses can only occur on the full moon.  The Jewish holidays of Passover and Sukkot are tied to the Jewish lunar calendar.  Passover starts on the night of the full moon after the vernal equinox and Sukkot also starts on a full moon six lunar months later.

Since these Jewish holidays start on the full moon, and lunar eclipses are on a full moon, it's certainly inevitable that they should line up sometimes.  Lunar eclipses also occur in cycles and tetrads (a group of 4 eclipses such as this) are not all that unusual.

As the following table from Universe Today shows, there are 8 of these tetrad eclipses in the 21st century:

Eclipse #1 Eclipse #2 Eclipse #3 Eclipse #4
May 16th, 2003 November 9th, 2003 May 4th , 2004 October 28th, 2004
April 15th, 2014*+ October 8th, 2014 April  4th, 2015*+ September 28th, 2015
April 25th, 2032 October 18th, 2032 April 14th, 2033*+ October 8th, 2033
March 25th, 2043* September 19th, 2043 March 13th, 2044 September 7th, 2044
May 6th, 2050 October 30th, 2050 April 26th, 2051 October 19th, 2051
April  4th, 2061*+ September 29th, 2061 March 25th, 2062* September  18th, 2062
March 4th, 2072 August 28th, 2072 February 22nd, 2073 August 17th, 2073
March 15th, 2090 September 8th, 2090 March 5th, 2091 August 29th, 2091
*Paschal Full Moon
+Eclipse coincides with Passover

No big deal.  If anyone's convinced that the end of the world is nigh because of these lunar eclipses, I'd be happy to take any extra money off your hand - won't need it after you're raptured anyway, right?

One final rant.  Science works!  Religion has never successfully predicted or explained a damn thing in the real world.  Yes, I'm cranky today.  Rant off.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Are Community Colleges Failures?

On March 3, the Chronicle of Higher Education published an article titled “2-Year Colleges are Urged to Capitalize on their Time in the Spotlight” (sorry but the article is available only to subscribers). A few things in this article really annoyed me so I thought I'd comment.

The article is a report on the comments of Dr. Terry O'Banion, president emeritus of the League for Innovation in the Community College and chair of the graduate faculty at National American University (a for-profit college). Although the article doesn't explicitly state this, the comments were made at the League for Innovation Innovations 2014 conference from March 2-5 in Anaheim, California.

Terry O'Banion is a well-known in the educational reform community. His academic background is in Guidance and Counseling (M.S.) and Educational Administration (Ph.D.) - I'll be nice and refrain from saying what I think about Ph.D.s in educational administration. Despite this, Dr. O'Banion certainly has an impressive vita and has spent decades thinking about higher education. Some of the things he's quoted as saying, however, do rub me the wrong way. Keep in mind that I wasn't at the conference and am only going by what the author of this article in the Chronicle is quoting. Regarding community colleges:

 “… it’s time they stepped up their game by improving 'unforgiveable' program-completion numbers…”

While it is true that, on paper, program completion statistics for community colleges are low there are somewhat intractable reasons for this that we can't easily address. Here are two major problems with this statement (and I can only talk about my experiences at the community college where I teach):

First, these types of program-completion statistics typically have major flaws. We're required to report, for example, graduation rates as defined by IPEDS (Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System). These are defined as:

“… the number of students entering the institution as full-time, first-time, degree/certificate-seeking undergraduate students in a particular year (cohort), by race/ethnicity and gender; the number completing their program within 150 percent of normal time to completion…”

What does this mean? Basically, suppose we have 100 students entering in the fall semester and matriculating into a particular degree program. The graduation rate is the number of these students graduating from their declared programs within 3 years (2-year program, so 150% of normal time is 3 years). Sounds good, right? Think again.

We are an open-door institution. That means virtually anyone can be admitted. We routinely admit students who, after taking English and mathematics placement exams, are shown to be functionally innumerate and illiterate. We have a number of developmental reading (yes, reading), writing, and mathematics courses at the college. Such students are required to take these courses to get those skills up to college-level. This means that for a semester or two, the student is not making much progress toward their actual degree (but they are learning useful skills that will enable them to do so). Suppose it now takes them 3.5 years to complete. We should all be proud of those students for the incredible progress they made academically. They're a failure according to IPEDS.

Well, what if a student changes their major? That's actually very common since, not surprisingly, a lot of 18-year-olds don't really know what they want to do with the rest of their life. Changing a majors screws up the reporting (and also increases time to completion since they may have extra coursework to do). The student has now found their life's calling, they graduate, but they're a failure, according to IPEDS.

Suppose a student only attends for a year, but then successfully transfers to a four-year college or university before completing a degree at the community college. To everyone else, that student is successful. To IPEDS, they're a failure.

Suppose a student comes for a year, but then takes a year off to care for their sick mother. They come back the following year and eventually graduate. A failure according to IPEDS.

Suppose a student has trouble paying for college (very common at our institution). They go full time for a year, then drop down to part time and work full time. It takes them 4 years to get through college but they graduate.  Most of us would applaud their hard work. IPEDS considers them a failure.

All of these scenarios are very common at our institution. They all result in a lowering of our IPEDS graduation rate statistics. And, really, how dare they compare open door community college graduation rates with four-year college and university graduation rates where they have SELECTIVE admissions (they don't admit students unlikely to succeed - we do!).

How exactly do we “step up our game” to improve these statistics, Dr. O'Banion?

Second, as already mentioned, we're an open door institution. We have students who are barely literate and, not surprisingly, many of them don't succeed. It's not politically-correct to say this, but some people are not "college material" (where exactly did this faux ‘equality’ idea come from that we all have the same abilities in life?). They simply don't have the ability to earn even a two-year degree at a community college. How can you succeed in college when you can't read at even a high school level, can't write a coherent paragraph, and can't do simple middle-school level math? We have those students.

While we have a whole slew of remedial/developmental courses for such students to take, they don't always help. Some have learning disabilities. Some simply don't have the intellectual abilities necessary to succeed. Some don't have the interest or motivation to learn (I have students tell me that haven't read a book in years and nothing academic interests them).  If they don't succeed, how is that my fault as a faculty member or my college's fault?  We provided them with ample opportunity to succeed.

College is not a place you go to purchase a degree (despite what some students and parents expect). It requires (gasp) hard work and effort to earn a degree!  When college funding is tied to artificial (see above) graduation rates, then there will strong pressure to academically water down the curricula.  A college degree will then be as worthless as a public high school degree currently is (sorry, but we get ever increasing numbers of recent high school graduates who immediately place into remedial courses).

By being open door, we give EVERYONE the OPPORTUNITY to EARN a degree.  We do not GIVE everyone a degree.  There's a huge and very important difference here that national educational reformers and politicians never seem to address (or even understand, god help us).

No one's saying we can't improve.  I'm chair of a STEM department and we're constantly trying to improve our courses and programs, increase enrollments, improve retention rates, etc.  But we sure as bloody hell aren't going to do it by watering down the content and rigor of our courses to make it easier for marginal students to pass so we can inflate numbers.  Math and science courses are challenging.  They're supposed to be challenging.  We can make them easier to improve our statistics but guess what?  We'd be doing the students a disservice because they will then move into a more rigorous four-year program and flunk out since they'd be lacking the necessary foundations.  We can't pass the buck (that's what the high schools, damn those educrats in Albany, have done to us at the community college).

But what do I know, not being a well-known educational reformer...

Monday, March 17, 2014

Occultation of Regulus

If you live in the Hudson Valley, you have the opportunity (if the weather cooperates) to observe a very neat astronomical event - the occultation of the bright star Regulus by an asteroid.  This is truly a rare, once-in-a-lifetime event.  Regulus is the brightest star in the zodiacal constellation of Leo the lion and an occultation (from a Latin word meaning "hide") occurs when one object passes in front of another briefly blocking our view of it in the sky.

In this case, the star Regulus, which is almost 80 light years away from us, will be briefly blocked by a passing asteroid belt rock named 163 Erigone (pronounced eh-RIG-uh-nee) from our perspective here in selected parts of New York State (see map below).  Unfortunately, it will happen around 2:07 a.m. ± 2 minutes on the evening of Wednesday, March 19 / early morning of Thursday, March 20 which is way past my normal bedtime!

Path of the occultation.  Green line is the center of the shadow path, blue lines mark edge
of asteroid's shadow, and red lines mark limits of one sigma uncertainty for shadow edges.

Here's a close-up for the mid-Hudson Valley where I live.
 

I live relatively close to the blue line southwest of Kingston so I plan on driving down toward the center of the path for a better view - probably the west-facing overlooks on either Route 44/55 or Route 52 on the Shawangunk Ridge (assuming skies are clear).   Here's where to find Regulus in the southwester sky (to the right of the Moon) around 2 a.m. in the mid-Hudson Valley (see map below).  The front of the constellation of Leo the lion looks like a backwards question mark with Regulus shining brightly at the bottom.

Red circle marks Regulus

You don't need a telescope or even binoculars to view this.  While some amateur astronomers will be out with telescopes accurately timing this occultation, Regulus is a very bright star and quite easy to find.  If you're watching for it, the occultation should be obvious and will last about 14 seconds.

Why will some astronomers be timing this event?  Because combining observational data from different localities on an occultation allow us to better determine the asteroids shape and size, allow the detection of moons around an asteroid, and allows us to more accurately measure the diameter of the star Regulus among other things.

Visit the International Occultation Timing Association website for more information.

Of course, as is dishearteningly typical for the Hudson Valley on nights where neat stuff is forecast to occur in the sky, the weather forecast looks bad (cloudy with rain/snow).

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Winter Hikes

As I've mentioned before, in apologizing for posting so little this academic year, my job has been very demanding lately and it's been hard for me to find time to post (and, quite frankly, I haven't been very inspired these past few months - it's been a long, tough winter here in the Hudson Valley).

This week is my spring break and while I still have to work (it never ends), I do have a little more free time.  Also, it's not spring no matter what the calendar will say in a few days, we still have a fair amount of snow on the ground and the temperature for this fine Sunday afternoon is still in the 30s!

I have done some hiking in the past few months and had a chance to use my snowshoes a few times this winter which is atypical.  I had also bought some microspikes to strap on my boots which have been helpful as well given all the ice this year.

Here's what's been keeping me busy since the spring semester began in mid-January...

A mid-January hike around Lake Minnewaska on a gray and dreary day (it was snowing lightly).


An early February hike on a relatively warm (upper 30s) day from Spring Farm up to Cope's Lookout (one of my two favorite places on the Mohonk Preserve).


An early February excursion into an abandoned cement mine near Kingston to view some really neat ice spires that had formed (some over 6 feet high!).

Photos by Andy Milford

A mid-Feburary hike on a rare blue-sky day to mostly frozen Awosting Falls at Lake Minnewaska State Park.


An early March hike to Vernooy Kill Falls in the Catskills.

 

In late February, went to see the ice yachts sailing on the still frozen Hudson River.


And, just yesterday, a hike to Stony Kill Falls in the Shawangunks.


So, I've been busy even though not posting here!